Christopher Sands from the Johns Hopkins Center for Canadian Studies joined GRI’s Macroeconomic Policy Webinar Series to examine U.S.–Canada trade and political relations in year two of the Trump administration’s second term. Sands began by highlighting the administration’s unfinished agenda on healthcare, defence procurement and technological leadership, and noting the highly uncertain geopolitical landscape.

On the CUSMA review, Sands stressed that the U.S. strategy is to retain leverage by requiring annual joint reviews. This would create sustained uncertainty for Canada and Mexico. He went on to outline the lay of the land in U.S. domestic politics, citing midterm elections, Supreme Court appointments, rising polarization, and weakened institutional trust as major drivers of trade policy and bilateral strain. Drawing parallels to the Nixon era, Sands suggested current tensions could gradually ease after Trump, with potential for rebuilding cooperation.

Sands proceeded to offer his insights on the Canadian political landscape, noting Mark Carney’s shift from conflict to competition (particularly vis-à-vis China and India) as a pragmatic strategy to diversify trade, strengthen security ties, and manage uncertainty. He also reviewed other possible drivers and constraints to the CUSMA review within Canada and Mexico. In concluding, Sands called for creative, long-term approaches to preserve a rules-based order and prepare for a more stable post‑Trump environment. A Q&A followed, focusing on CUSMA scenarios and Canada’s leverage in the ongoing negotiations.