Sanctions on Russia: Disruptions in Emerging Markets

April 5, 2022 10:02 am Published by

The role of the Russian economy in the emerging markets has been diminishing since the 2014 sanctions were applied following the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. Despite a recovery in 2021, Russia’s share in the global economy is now in further decline as the financial impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war are priced into global markets.

GRAFT Update on World Economic Forum’s 2022 Most Severe Risks

February 8, 2022 9:42 am Published by

World Economic Forum’s 2022 Risk Report highlight’s global environmental concerns as top of mind, followed closely by Societal concerns metal health deterioration and Social cohesion erosion, and continuing Technological concerns failure of cyber security and in Canada a potential Debt Crises and Geoeconomic confrontations. 

POWERSHIFTS, PANDEMIC AND POPULISM IN EUROPE: Reflections for Canadian Financial Services

September 2, 2021 9:00 am Published by

This paper explores recent political changes, or “power shifts”, in four of the largest European economies. Over the course of 2021-22, Italy, the  Netherlands, Germany and France have hosted or will soon play host to major elections and/or leadership transitions. These countries are all principal architects of continental integration, dating back to the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1952. At times, the four states also reflect conflicting viewpoints in deliberations over political and macroeconomic policy.

Geopolitical Risk Commentary: U.S. Elections Debrief

December 16, 2020 12:04 pm Published by

This commentary offers some initial thoughts on the election returns and their consequences for political uncertainty. It then reflects on the specific implications of the “Biden Minus Blue Wave” scenario for Canadian financial institutions, as manifest in American domestic policy, U.S.-Canada relations, U.S.-China relations, and the larger U.S. global role.

Trade Update

Trade Update 2020

January 30, 2020 4:33 pm Published by

Trade disputes can increase market volatility while dragging down foreign direct investment and cross-border lending. New trade barriers can increase credit risk for lenders. When considering potential impact on compliance, returns and aggregate enterprise risk, risk managers should keep five major trade developments of the past year top of mind and continue to monitor their trajectories in 2020.