POWERSHIFTS, PANDEMIC AND POPULISM IN EUROPE: Reflections for Canadian Financial Services

This paper explores recent political changes, or “power shifts”, in four of the largest European economies. Over the course of 2021-22, Italy, the  Netherlands, Germany and France have hosted or will soon play host to major elections and/or leadership transitions. These countries are all principal architects of continental integration, dating back to the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1952. At times, the four states also reflect conflicting viewpoints in deliberations over political and macroeconomic policy.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures: Caveat Emptor

Today, approximately 20 per cent of the financial information used in making investment, lending and capital allocation decisions is prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). 

Geopolitical Risk Commentary: U.S. Elections Debrief

This commentary offers some initial thoughts on the election returns and their consequences for political uncertainty. It then reflects on the specific implications of the “Biden Minus Blue Wave” scenario for Canadian financial institutions, as manifest in American domestic policy, U.S.-Canada relations, U.S.-China relations, and the larger U.S. global role.

Operational Resilience: Where Are We?

There are a number of approaches under consideration and whether regulators ultimately respond by providing workable globally-compatible guidance is yet to be determined. Regardless, firms need to act now to better protect their clients, themselves and overall market integrity.

Regulatory Forbearance in the Age of COVID-19

Navigating the current crisis requires considerable professional judgement, which must be supported by a number of key elements, including; active stakeholder consultation, robust risk management information systems, effective governance and, importantly, guiding principles. In response to this unique challenge, financial regulators have begun to implement a wide range of special policy actions.

FINANCIAL INNOVATION SERIES – Sentiment Analysis and Natural Language Processing in Finance

This report discusses the implementation challenges of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Sentiment Analysis for financial institutions. NLP is being applied by financial institutions across a number of different areas of interest: climate change, asset management, geopolitics, economic policy, monetary policy & cyber risk. This report also touches upon existing practices and dealing with challenges that currently face the financial services sector.

Trade Update 2020

Trade disputes can increase market volatility while dragging down foreign direct investment and cross-border lending. New trade barriers can increase credit risk for lenders. When considering potential impact on compliance, returns and aggregate enterprise risk, risk managers should keep five major trade developments of the past year top of mind and continue to monitor their trajectories in 2020.

Power Shifts: 2019 in Review, 2020 U.S. Election Outlook

Political transitions can increase country risk and disrupt investment, lending, and insurance, while directional swings in public policy, international relations and/or social attitudes impact market sentiment and shape real business environments. We provide an overview of major upcoming developments.

What Keeps Bank Board Directors Awake at Night

Chief Risk Officers are constantly asked this question. However, it’s not just CRO’s or their executive management teams, that should have trouble sleeping. With an ever-increasing focus on governance, board of directors must focus on risks, traditional and emerging, that could impact the health and stability of their organizations.

Building a Strong Risk Culture

Even the most casual observer will notice that newspaper headlines continue to be fueled by a steady stream of corporate scandals, malfeasance, and other assorted conduct and risk management “missteps”. A commonly recurring theme in much of the ensuing narrative and analysis is that these events are often directly attributable to some form of material “failure of (risk) culture”. In this paper, we explore a working definition of a “strong risk culture” as a guide to identify key management practices and conditions that can often play a critical role in shaping an organization’s risk culture.

What Makes Green Investment a Puzzle?

The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Climate and Environmental Sustainability Research Committee awarded Sally Shen, Research Associate, Global Risk Institute, first prize for her three page essay “What Makes Green Investment a Puzzle” in May 2019. This essay argues that the myth behind the motivation of green investment is driven by both unknown knowns and unknown unknowns.

Unravelling the U.S. – China Trade Dispute

For the Canadian financial services industry, the trade war presents complex and ambiguous risks. Punitive tariffs and general market uncertainty induce volatility, disrupt supply chains, and disincentivize new investment in the short-term. The dispute also creates a more protracted challenge in that it holds the potential to shape the future political relationship between the U.S. and China and thus the global economic system over the long-term

Power Shifts? Elections Around the World in 2019

In 2019, some of the largest emerging economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America could undergo disruptive political changes, while populist and anti-establishment parties are set to expand their reach in the European Union. This article provides a preliminary assessment of the policy implications of these elections and the risks for global financial institutions.