Amid Concerns Over Trade, Iran, Oil Prices, Politics and Brexit, IACPM Credit Outlook Survey Respondents Are Split; Credit Conditions Could Worsen But May Not in Near Future
New York, NY – Just a handful of respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey expect credit conditions to improve in 2020 but, beyond that, respondents are almost evenly split between those who think conditions will get worse or remain at today’s benign levels. Forty eight percent of respondents think corporate defaults will rise globally over the next 12 months, while almost the same number, 47%, think they will stay at the same level. Just four percent expect defaults to fall.
“We’re clearly late in the economic cycle but conditions haven’t gotten any worse, largely because central banks have added liquidity to keep economies going,” commented Som-lok Leung, Executive Director of the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers. “The cycle will turn at some point but when? In six months? Who knows?”