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Publication Library

Research Report

Fintech and the Retirement Savings System

GRI Research Associate Sally Shen co-authored the paper Fintech and the Retirement Savings System which was published by the Society of Actuaries in January 2021.

Research Report

Risk Sharing Pension Plans

Risk Sharing Pension Plans Mary Hardy, University of Waterloo David Saunders, University of Waterloo Xiaobai Zhu, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Download the full paper - PDF Version This project adapts results from theoretical, stylized work on pension design, to explore a form of Target Benefit (TB) plan that allows for structured, transparent intergenerational... View Article

Research Report

Climate Risk Scenario Analysis: An Executive Primer

Climate change poses foreseeable physical and transition risks, but uncertainty remains in the magnitude of impact, timing, and policy pathways that will actually come to pass.

Research Report

International Survey of Earthquake Insurance Guarantee Schemes

Earthquakes can strike without warning near large population centres, threatening human life and inflicting massive physical and social damage. Low-probability, high-impact events of this kind can present unique challenges for risk management professionals.

Research Report

Quantum Threat Timeline Report 2020

We are pleased to provide an update to the first report issued in November 2019. This report documents a shift in the opinions from the last report due to the advances and changes in the quantum computing landscape.

White Paper

2020-2021 Risk Outlook Survey

2020-2021 Risk Outlook Survey Global Risk Institute Download the Full Report Introduction The world has changed dramatically since we published our last edition of the GRI Risk Outlook Survey a year ago. Top risks that were thought to be at the forefront have been impacted and, in some instances, overshadowed by the events brought about... View Article

Research Report

Sustainable Finance and Climate Risk: Outlook for 2021

As we emerge from a year of unparalleled disruption, we look ahead to a 2021 that will continue to be shaped by the global pandemic, pressing human health issues, and the ensuing economic fallout. Many points of connection and comparison have been drawn between the pandemic and another external risk of global proportions – climate change. From big picture global forces right down to expected milestones in the Canadian financial sector, here are the trends that will shape the sustainable finance and climate risk agenda in 2021.

Research Report

In Sickness and in Debt: The COVID-19 Impact on Sovereign Credit Risk

The COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique setting in which to evaluate the importance of a country’s fiscal capacity in explaining the relation between economic growth shocks and sovereign default risk. For a sample of 30 developed countries, we find a positive and significant sensitivity of sovereign default risk to the intensity of the virus’ spread for fiscally constrained governments. Supporting the fiscal channel, we confirm the results for Eurozone countries and U.S. states, for which monetary policy can be held constant. Our analysis suggests that financial markets penalize sovereigns with low fiscal space, thereby impairing their resilience to external shocks.

Research Brief

Geopolitical Risk Commentary: U.S. Elections Debrief

This commentary offers some initial thoughts on the election returns and their consequences for political uncertainty. It then reflects on the specific implications of the “Biden Minus Blue Wave” scenario for Canadian financial institutions, as manifest in American domestic policy, U.S.-Canada relations, U.S.-China relations, and the larger U.S. global role.