Publications

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Technical Data

Examine results from our technical projects generated from our research activities and collaborations with partner universities.


Article

In Sickness and in Debt: The COVID-19 Impact on Sovereign Credit Risk

The COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique setting in which to evaluate the importance of a country’s fiscal capacity in explaining the relation between economic growth shocks and sovereign default risk. For a sample of 30 developed countries, we find a positive and significant sensitivity of sovereign default risk to the intensity of the virus’ spread for fiscally constrained governments. Supporting the fiscal channel, we confirm the results for Eurozone countries and U.S. states, for which monetary policy can be held constant. Our analysis suggests that financial markets penalize sovereigns with low fiscal space, thereby impairing their resilience to external shocks.

Research Brief

Geopolitical Risk Commentary: U.S. Elections Debrief

This commentary offers some initial thoughts on the election returns and their consequences for political uncertainty. It then reflects on the specific implications of the “Biden Minus Blue Wave” scenario for Canadian financial institutions, as manifest in American domestic policy, U.S.-Canada relations, U.S.-China relations, and the larger U.S. global role.

Research Report

Institutional Investors Find Alpha in Climate Risk Matrices: Global Survey Finds

This report that presents results of a global institutional investor survey focused on understanding the methods to assess physical climate risk, the extent of formal training on physical climate risk received by the Boards of Directors, C-Suite officers and portfolio managers, and the utility of Climate Risk Matrices to aid portfolio managers in investment decisions.

Academic Final Report

Can Estimated Risk and Time Preferences Explain Real-life Financial Choices?

This project is the first to relate jointly estimated risk and (present-biased) time preferences to actual financial decision making by means of a (non-linear) life-cycle model. On average, pension fund participants show present-biased behavior. Retirees are less present-biased than active participants.

Academic Final Report

Preferences, Disposition Effect and COVID-19

This research measures preferences and trading behavior during the emergence of the COVID-19 crisis. Marike and her coauthors find that in a crisis, individual investor behaviour becomes more impatient and risk seeking.

Research Brief

Operational Resilience: Where Are We?

There are a number of approaches under consideration and whether regulators ultimately respond by providing workable globally-compatible guidance is yet to be determined. Regardless, firms need to act now to better protect their clients, themselves and overall market integrity.

Research Report

Climate-Related Financial Disclosure in the Canadian Financial Sector

This study examines trends in climate-related financial disclosure among 58 financial firms in Canada including banks, pensions, insurance, financial Crowns, and credit unions over three reporting cycles (2017, 2018, 2019). This study assesses progress toward alignment with the TCFD Recommendations, and by extension, provides some insight as to the state of climate risk governance and management among Canadian financial firms.

Article

Digital Assets May Shift Global Trade Currency

The race to develop and adopt global stablecoins (GSC)/central bank digital currencies (CBDC) has the potential to put the stewardship of the global financial system up for grabs.

Interim Report

Forced Retirement Risk and Portfolio Choice

In this interim report on forced retirement risk and the link to investment portfolios, Minjoon Lee and his coauthors analyze the latest Canadian data and find that the correlation between stock returns and the chance of involuntary job separation is much stronger during the coronavirus crisis.