Publications

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Examine results from our technical projects generated from our research activities and collaborations with partner universities.


Research Report

Climate Risk Scenario Analysis: An Executive Primer

Climate change poses foreseeable physical and transition risks, but uncertainty remains in the magnitude of impact, timing, and policy pathways that will actually come to pass.

Research Report

International Survey of Earthquake Insurance Guarantee Schemes

Earthquakes can strike without warning near large population centres, threatening human life and inflicting massive physical and social damage. Low-probability, high-impact events of this kind can present unique challenges for risk management professionals.

Research Report

Quantum Threat Timeline Report 2020

We are pleased to provide an update to the first report issued in November 2019. This report documents a shift in the opinions from the last report due to the advances and changes in the quantum computing landscape.

White Paper

2020-2021 Risk Outlook Survey

2020-2021 Risk Outlook Survey Global Risk Institute Download the Full Report Introduction The world has changed dramatically since we published our last edition of the GRI Risk Outlook Survey a year ago. Top risks that were thought to be at the forefront have been impacted and, in some instances, overshadowed by the events brought about... View Article

Research Report

Sustainable Finance and Climate Risk: Outlook for 2021

As we emerge from a year of unparalleled disruption, we look ahead to a 2021 that will continue to be shaped by the global pandemic, pressing human health issues, and the ensuing economic fallout. Many points of connection and comparison have been drawn between the pandemic and another external risk of global proportions – climate change. From big picture global forces right down to expected milestones in the Canadian financial sector, here are the trends that will shape the sustainable finance and climate risk agenda in 2021.

Research Report

In Sickness and in Debt: The COVID-19 Impact on Sovereign Credit Risk

The COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique setting in which to evaluate the importance of a country’s fiscal capacity in explaining the relation between economic growth shocks and sovereign default risk. For a sample of 30 developed countries, we find a positive and significant sensitivity of sovereign default risk to the intensity of the virus’ spread for fiscally constrained governments. Supporting the fiscal channel, we confirm the results for Eurozone countries and U.S. states, for which monetary policy can be held constant. Our analysis suggests that financial markets penalize sovereigns with low fiscal space, thereby impairing their resilience to external shocks.

Research Brief

Geopolitical Risk Commentary: U.S. Elections Debrief

This commentary offers some initial thoughts on the election returns and their consequences for political uncertainty. It then reflects on the specific implications of the “Biden Minus Blue Wave” scenario for Canadian financial institutions, as manifest in American domestic policy, U.S.-Canada relations, U.S.-China relations, and the larger U.S. global role.

Research Report

Institutional Investors Find Alpha in Climate Risk Matrices: Global Survey Finds

This report that presents results of a global institutional investor survey focused on understanding the methods to assess physical climate risk, the extent of formal training on physical climate risk received by the Boards of Directors, C-Suite officers and portfolio managers, and the utility of Climate Risk Matrices to aid portfolio managers in investment decisions.

Academic Final Report

Can Estimated Risk and Time Preferences Explain Real-life Financial Choices?

This project is the first to relate jointly estimated risk and (present-biased) time preferences to actual financial decision making by means of a (non-linear) life-cycle model. On average, pension fund participants show present-biased behavior. Retirees are less present-biased than active participants.

Academic Final Report

Preferences, Disposition Effect and COVID-19

This research measures preferences and trading behavior during the emergence of the COVID-19 crisis. Marike and her coauthors find that in a crisis, individual investor behaviour becomes more impatient and risk seeking.