Geopolitical Risk Commentary:
U.S. Elections Debrief
Erik Brown, Research Analyst, Global Risk Institute
At first glance, the 2020 United States election seems to offer a mixed bag of signals to Canadian financial institutions. Yet one can make some coherent observations about the result. U.S. President-elect Biden’s solid margin of victory marks a clear rejection of President Donald Trump, while the prospect of a divided Congress threatens legislative gridlock, and highlights the Democrats’ failure to resonate with voters further down the ballot. This commentary offers some initial thoughts on the election returns and their consequences for political uncertainty. It then reflects on the specific implications of the “Biden Minus Blue Wave” scenario for Canadian financial institutions, as manifest in American domestic policy, U.S.- Canada relations, U.S.- China relations, and the larger U.S. global role.
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