Climate-Energy Futures: Stress Test Scenarios for Global Uncertainty

  • Global Risk Institute
wind turbines generating electricity on sunset sky

About this Report

If the road to net-zero becomes a long and winding one, will your organization be ready to pivot? With the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions leading to energy insecurity in Europe and elsewhere, what will it all mean to the ongoing global effort to reach net-zero emissions by 2050?

This paper applies a strategic foresight framework to the competing priorities of climate activism and energy security, proposing three distinctly different scenarios to how this could all play out:

  • Scenario 1: Security First – Energy insecurity drives renewed investment in fossil fuels to safeguard domestic energy supply in the short term, turning back the clock on multilateral climate agreements, and all but halting the net-zero transition.
  • Scenario 2: Fund the Future – Energy shortages lead to short-term investment in fossil fuels to fill acute shortages, with a rise in clean energy investments over the medium-term, sending contradictory signals to lenders and investors.
  • Scenario 3: Accelerating Green Transition – Faced with energy insecurity, policymakers expedite the net-zero transition by increasing investment in clean energy and introducing strong measures to curb total energy usage.

Discover the world of plausible futures, exploring the opportunities and challenges they may bring. These insights can empower risk managers in the financial sector to enhance their capacity in facing the unexpected with confidence.