Q1 2022 IACPM: Credit Outlook Survey
19 April 2022
Latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey Forecasts Amid Concerns Over Inflation, Geopolitical Pressures and Supply Chain Issues, Respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey
Forecast Rising Defaults and Wider Credit Spreads
New York, NY – Respondents to the latest quarterly IACPM Credit Outlook Survey, citing geopolitical concerns, supply chain issues and continued expectations for rising inflation, forecast rising credit defaults over the next 12 months and wider credit spreads over the next three months. Respondents, who are members of the International
Association of Credit Portfolio Managers, foresee rising defaults around the world. The latest Credit Default Index for Europe is minus -76.7. Not a single survey respondent expects defaults to decline in that region over the next 12 months. At the same time, though, respondents forecast rising defaults in North America, Asia and Australia as well. The Aggregate Credit Default Outlook Index this quarter is negative -58.0 compared to positive 2.6 just nine months earlier.