Research

We emphasize and encourage links between academic researchers and practitioners at financial institutions to bring theoretical techniques to bear on real-world issues.

Geopolitical Risk

Global affairs are in a state of disruptive transition. Trends like the growth of emerging economies, the rise of populism, and evolving security threats are increasing multipolarity in international relations, upsetting trade and investment flows, steering markets and shaping regulation. Multilateral organizations, national and sub-national governments and civil society groups often hold competing interests and objectives, and the relationships between these constituencies can shape the business environment in which financial institutions operate.

Collaborating with field specialists in industry and academia, GRI is committed to helping our members grapple with rising uncertainty in global politics and adapt risk management strategies in response to geopolitical developments.


Power Shifts? Elections Around the World in 2019

In 2019, some of the largest emerging economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America could undergo disruptive political changes, while populist and anti-establishment parties are set to expand their reach in the European Union. This article provides a preliminary assessment of the policy implications of these elections and the risks for global financial institutions.

The Belt and Road Initiative

This “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) promises to link China to both neighbouring and distant regions along its southern and western frontiers through a mass infrastructure investment project, including roads, rail lines, ports, energy pipelines and digital networks. With a sum total of promised investments reaching $1 trillion (estimates vary), the BRI may be the most ambitious scheme of its kind ever attempted – 7 to 8 times larger than the $140 billion Marshall Plan that funded the reconstruction of Europe after the Second World War – and could take decades to fully complete.

Reimagining “NAFTA 2.0”

This report moves beyond traditional approaches to risk management in the financial services industry and focuses specifically on understanding political uncertainty. It uses the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as a case study to illustrate the value of social scientific theory when analyzing multilateral negotiations.

United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement

Canadian financial service professionals have watched negotiations with a keen eye to see what changes could be made to the original NAFTA provisions and what the possible implications might be for the industry. With an agreement in place, it is possible to begin to evaluate the new elements of the USMCA and point to the kinds of first and second-order effects of which financial risk managers should be aware.