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Research

We emphasize and encourage links between academic researchers and practitioners at financial institutions to bring theoretical techniques to bear on real-world issues.

Macroeconomic Risk

Macroeconomic risk derives from the behaviour of industries and governments and the relationships between them rather than from individual companies. It concerns fiscal and monetary policies, trade and investment flows and political developments on a national and international scale, and the effects of these factors on financial portfolios and company valuations. Intermediate variables of particular importance to macroeconomic risk include equities and commodities markets, business cycles, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, prices, and exports/imports.

GRI seeks to support our members as they refine and supplement existing risk management practices in response to changing macroeconomic conditions.


Research Report

Unwinding Pandemic Stimulus: The Bank of Canada’s Narrow Path to Successful Policy Normalization

6 May 2022  |  Financial Stability and Regulatory Compliance

Unwinding Pandemic Stimulus: The Bank of Canada’s Narrow Path to Successful Policy Normalization James K. Stewart, Executive in Residence, Global Risk Institute Hugh O’Reilly, Executive in Residence, Global Risk Institute Victoria Guo, Director, Research, Global Risk Institute Download the Executive Summary – PDF Version Download the Executive Summary – PDF Version

Research Report

World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2022: The Canadian Perspective

5 May 2022  |  Financial Stability and Regulatory Compliance

World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2022: The Canadian Perspective Victoria Guo, Director, Research, Global Risk Institute Download the full Report – PDF Version Abstract The World Economic Forum published its Global Risks Report 2022 (the Report) in January, with the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) results in fall 2021. The Report is based… View Article

Research Report

The Impact of Cultural and Political Factors on the Spread and Macro-Economic Fallout of COVID-19

29 April 2022  |  COVID-19

The Impact of Cultural and Political Factors on the Spread and Macro-Economic Fallout of COVID-19 Anup Basnet, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom Dieter Gramlich, Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University Heidenheim (DHBW), Germany Thomas Walker, John Molson School of Business, Concordia University, Montreal, Canada Download the full paper – PDF Version

GRAFT Update on World Economic Forum’s 2022 Most Severe Risks

8 February 2022  |  Cyber security and Fraud

World Economic Forum’s 2022 Risk Report highlight’s global environmental concerns as top of mind, followed closely by Societal concerns metal health deterioration and Social cohesion erosion, and continuing Technological concerns failure of cyber security and in Canada a potential Debt Crises and Geoeconomic confrontations. 

Research Report

US Federal Reserve Policy In Transition: Key Impacts for Canadian Fixed Income Markets

3 December 2021  |  Financial Stability and Regulatory Compliance

US Federal Reserve Policy In Transition: Key Impacts for Canadian Fixed Income Markets James K. Stewart, Executive in Residence, Global Risk Institute Victoria Guo, Director Research, Global Risk Institute Download the full Executive Summary – PDF Version Download the full paper – PDF Version

Academic Final Report

Mortgage Foreclosure, Forbearance, and Refinancing

15 September 2021  |  Financial Stability and Regulatory Compliance

This paper examines the effect of foreclosure prevention policies during the pandemic on refinancing activities in the United States.

Research Report

TRANSITIONING FROM THE PANDEMIC: Towards a More Balanced Fiscal Policy

25 August 2021  |  Financial Stability and Regulatory Compliance

As Canada’s COVID-19 vaccination rates achieve critical thresholds in mid 2021, fundamental changes in fiscal policy are recommended to boost the Canadian economy’s supply side and make governments’ demand-side support more effective.

White Paper

COVID-19 Triggers Great Nonfinancial Risk Crisis: Nonfinancial risk management best practices in Canada

31 May 2021  |  COVID-19

COVID-19 Triggers Great Nonfinancial Risk Crisis: Nonfinancial risk management best practices in Canada Lois Tullo, Executive in Residence, Global Risk Institute Download the full Report – PDF Version INTRODUCTION The spread of viral disease COVID-19 is the most transformative nonfinancial risk (NFR) of this decade.  The uniting of strategy and risk management has never been… View Article

Research Report

In Sickness and in Debt: The COVID-19 Impact on Sovereign Credit Risk

14 January 2021  |  Macroeconomic Risk

The COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique setting in which to evaluate the importance of a country’s fiscal capacity in explaining the relation between economic growth shocks and sovereign default risk. For a sample of 30 developed countries, we find a positive and significant sensitivity of sovereign default risk to the intensity of the virus’ spread for fiscally constrained governments. Supporting the fiscal channel, we confirm the results for Eurozone countries and U.S. states, for which monetary policy can be held constant. Our analysis suggests that financial markets penalize sovereigns with low fiscal space, thereby impairing their resilience to external shocks.

Article

Progress Toward 2021 Canadian Monetary Policy Renewal

18 September 2020  |  Macroeconomic Risk

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is in the process of a multi-year review in advance of the renewal of its monetary policy framework in 2021. Culminating in an inflation-control agreement with the Government of Canada every five years, the renewal process adds credibility to the Bank’s inflation objective and underpins its operational independence. This paper is a summary of the virtual workshop the BoC held on August 26th titled “Towards the 2021 Renewal of the Monetary Policy Framework.

Research Report

Reimagining “NAFTA 2.0”

6 December 2018  |  Geopolitical

This report moves beyond traditional approaches to risk management in the financial services industry and focuses specifically on understanding political uncertainty. It uses the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as a case study to illustrate the value of social scientific theory when analyzing multilateral negotiations.

White Paper

United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement

6 November 2018  |  Geopolitical

Canadian financial service professionals have watched negotiations with a keen eye to see what changes could be made to the original NAFTA provisions and what the possible implications might be for the industry. With an agreement in place, it is possible to begin to evaluate the new elements of the USMCA and point to the kinds of first and second-order effects of which financial risk managers should be aware.

White Paper

Equity Holding Preferences of U.S. based Insurance Companies in Low Interest Rate Periods

22 March 2017  |  Macroeconomic Risk

Equity Holding Preferences of U.S. based Insurance Companies in Low Interest Rate PeriodsRelated Project: Optimal and Actual Asset Allocation Decisions in Protracted Low Interest Rate PeriodsAuthor: C. Krishnamurti, N. Papagiorgiou, F. RadmehrProfessor Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti is the lead research contributor for the Global Risk Institute on Optimal and Actual Asset Allocation Decisions in Protracted Low Interest Rate Periods…. View Article

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